Adriano Feria, an analyst who’s been watching the crypto space for a while, has a pretty stark view on what’s coming for XRP. He thinks the arrival of spot exchange-traded funds might actually be the start of its decline. His reasoning? He’s convinced that when these products finally launch, they’ll show something a lot of people might not want to see: that big-money institutions just aren’t that interested in XRP.
It’s a sobering thought, especially when you consider the recent optimism from other corners.
Is The Optimism Justified?
Not everyone shares Feria’s gloomy outlook, of course. Some analysts are actually pretty hopeful about the potential performance of XRP ETFs, whenever they get the green light. Their confidence seems to be based on the surprising success of CME Group’s regulated XRP futures. I think it was the fastest contract they’ve ever had to cross the $1 billion mark in open interest. That’s not nothing.
Then there’s Steven McClurg from Canary Capital. During a recent chat, he threw out a pretty big number. He suggested that an XRP ETF could potentially pull in around $5 billion in its first month alone. His argument is that on Wall Street, XRP is probably the second most recognized name in crypto, right after Bitcoin. Whether that recognition translates into actual investment is the real question, perhaps.
The Big Players Are Holding Back
But here’s the thing that makes you pause. The heaviest hitters in the ETF game aren’t jumping in. BlackRock, which basically dominates this sector, has reportedly confirmed it has no plans to launch an XRP product. That’s… notable. Their Bitcoin and Ethereum funds are soaking up almost all the inflows. Why not touch XRP?
Fidelity is another one. They’re the second biggest player, and they’ve filed for a Solana ETF. But for XRP? Silence. They’re staying on the sidelines for now. It makes you wonder what they see—or don’t see—that the smaller firms might be overlooking.
A Waiting Game
Despite the absence of the giants, it’s not a complete ghost town. There are still a total of 15 pending applications for XRP ETFs from a bunch of other companies. So the door isn’t completely closed. The market is basically in a holding pattern, waiting to see if any of these get approved and, more importantly, if anyone shows up to buy them.
Feria might be onto something. Or maybe the smaller firms see an opportunity everyone else is missing. The launch of these funds will be the ultimate test, revealing whether the institutional demand is real or just something people hope for.
