Pantera’s Bitcoin Halving Prediction—Almost Too Good to Be True
Back in 2022, when Bitcoin was limping toward what would become its cycle low below $16,000, Pantera Capital made a call that seemed borderline absurd at the time. They projected Bitcoin would hit $117,482 by August 11, 2025. Fast forward to this month, and Bitcoin closed above $119,000 on that exact date.
It’s one of those rare moments where a price prediction lands with eerie precision. Pantera’s forecast wasn’t just a wild guess—it was rooted in Bitcoin’s halving cycle, the four-year rhythm where mining rewards get cut in half, tightening supply. Historically, that’s been followed by rallies, though each one has seen diminishing returns.
But here’s the thing: even Pantera probably didn’t expect to nail the date *and* price that closely.
The Halving Cycle Playbook
Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a rough script for years. After a halving, there’s a rally, then a peak, then a brutal correction, and finally a quiet accumulation phase before the next halving kicks off the cycle again. Analysts like Bob Loukas have mapped this out for years, and Loukas himself called the start of the current cycle in early 2023, just weeks after Bitcoin bottomed.
Pantera’s 2022 chart leaned hard into this pattern, accounting for the typical lag between halvings and price surges. At the time, skeptics rolled their eyes—Bitcoin was in freefall, and the idea of a six-figure price seemed laughable. Now, with Bitcoin hovering around $120,000, it’s hard to argue with the results.
But What If This Time Really Is Different?
There’s always chatter about the halving cycle losing its relevance, and this time, the argument has some weight. Bitcoin isn’t the niche asset it once was. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched earlier this year, have sucked up over 7% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Corporations and public companies hold another huge chunk.
Jason Williams, an investor and author, thinks this changes everything. He’s argued that with so much Bitcoin locked up in ETFs and corporate treasuries, the old four-year cycle might be broken. Pierre Rochard, another well-known Bitcoin advocate, has pointed out that with 95% of Bitcoin already mined, new supply isn’t the driving force it once was. Demand, he says, now comes from ETFs, retail buyers, and companies hoarding Bitcoin like digital gold.
Still, it’s hard to ignore how often the halving cycle has played out as expected. Even with institutional money flooding in, Bitcoin’s price action has, so far, stuck to the script. Maybe the rules haven’t changed—just the players.
Either way, Pantera’s 2022 call will go down as one of the luckiest (or smartest) predictions in crypto history. The question now is whether the next cycle will follow the same playbook—or if the game has finally changed.
