Bitcoin had a pretty rough summer, all things considered. While Ethereum seemed to be on a tear, Bitcoin just couldn’t find its footing. August was a perfect example—Bitcoin dropped by about 7%, while ETH shot up 17% in the same period. It’s a stark contrast, and it makes you wonder what’s going on under the surface.
Over the last two months, Bitcoin’s price barely moved, ticking up less than 1%. Ethereum, on the other hand, surged an eye-popping 74%. That kind of underperformance has consequences. Bitcoin’s market dominance, which is basically its share of the whole crypto market, dropped more than 5% in just a month. The numbers from TradingView don’t lie.
Is a Bitcoin Comeback Around the Corner?
But maybe things are about to shift. Some traders are thinking Bitcoin could stage a bit of a comeback in September, especially if the market stays jumpy and people lose interest in those flashy new crypto stocks. You know, the ones that went public recently, banking heavily on retail investors to keep the momentum going.
Matthew Sigel, who heads up crypto research at VanEck, put it like this: “We don’t see signs of excessive leverage like last cycle… but there are a lot of new stocks that need buyers. If retail interest drops, those stocks could suffer. Bitcoin might end up being the one that does better.” It’s a hunch, but it makes some sense.
September’s Track Record & the “Uptober” Hope
Historically, September hasn’t been a great month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, it’s averaged a decline of nearly 4%. It’s finished positive the last two years, sure, but traders still get a little nervous this time of year.
Then there’s October. For some reason, it’s almost always a rebound month. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted gains in all but two Octobers. The average return is around 21%. The crypto crowd even has a name for it: “Uptober.” A lot of people are banking on that pattern holding true again.
Satraj Bambra, CEO of hybrid exchange Rails, thinks the start of September might be rocky for Bitcoin before things turn around. He expects the ETH-BTC ratio—which measures Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin—to cool off. “That means bitcoin dominance takes a bit of a run against ETH in September,” he added.
All Eyes on the Fed
Everyone’s watching the Federal Reserve right now. Their next policy meeting is mid-September, and traders are reacting to recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell that hinted a rate cut could be possible. Bitcoin usually does better when liquidity is easier to come by, so a dovish move from the Fed could give it a boost.
Even with wider market sell-offs always a risk, Bitcoin’s price is finding some support from big ETF inflows and accumulation by long-term holders. It did, after all, hit a new all-time high near $125,000 back on August 13th.
And it’s not just trading—this wealth is changing how people spend. A growing number of luxury travel companies, from private jet operators like FXAIR to cruise lines like Virgin Voyages, are now accepting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. They’re catering to a new wave of younger, crypto-wealthy customers who want to spend their digital gains in the real world.
