Historical October Strength Meets Current Headwinds
October has traditionally been Bitcoin’s strongest month, earning the nickname “Uptober” for its consistent track record. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has closed October with gains more often than not, with standout years like 2017 and 2021 when the cryptocurrency surged by 49% and 40% respectively.
But this year feels different, I think. The crypto market has shown lackluster performance in recent weeks, and there are several factors working against Bitcoin’s typical October momentum. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are weighing on the US dollar, and institutional interest appears to be waning as we head into October 2025.
Holder Retention Declines
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s Holder Retention Rate has been steadily declining since September 14 and continues to trend lower. It stands at 80.17% currently, down 1% over the past 16 days.
The Holder Retention Rate tracks the percentage of addresses that maintain a balance of BTC across consecutive 30-day periods. It’s essentially a measure of how long holders keep their coins. A declining retention rate reflects a lack of conviction among holders, suggesting that more investors are moving coins to exchanges or liquidating positions instead of holding for the long term.
If this trend continues, it could reduce buy-side stability and make BTC more vulnerable to sharper price swings in the coming weeks. I’ve noticed that when holders start losing faith, the market tends to become more volatile.
Derivatives Market Turns Bearish
The coin’s Taker-Buy Sell Ratio has mostly recorded values below one throughout September, confirming the bearish sentiment among derivatives traders. According to CryptoQuant’s data, it sits at 0.95 currently.
This metric measures the ratio between buy and sell volumes in an asset’s futures market. Values above one indicate more buy than sell volume, while values below one suggest that more futures traders are distributing their holdings to prevent losses. For BTC, the sustained bearish tilt in derivatives markets suggests that short sellers are increasingly dominant, strengthening the downside bias.
Unless this ratio flips back above one to show renewed buy-side pressure, October could remain challenging for the leading cryptocurrency. The derivatives market often sets the tone for spot prices.
Whale Activity Dries Up
Falling whale interest also adds to the downward pressure on BTC’s price. According to Santiment, large investors who hold between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have reduced their holdings by 50,000 coins over the past week.
Historically, whale participation has been closely tied to BTC’s rallies, as these deep-pocketed players provide the liquidity and momentum needed to sustain upward moves. Therefore, the absence of such activity adds another layer of risk. Without whale demand, retail flows alone may be insufficient to drive a strong October rebound.
Price Outlook
BTC currently trades at $113,968. If this bearish momentum holds into October, the coin could test immediate support around $111,961. If selloffs continue, the price could drop to $107,557 if selling accelerates.
On the other hand, if demand recovers, fueled by improving macro conditions and renewed demand, BTC could attempt to reclaim resistance at $115,892 and push toward the $119,367 mark. The market seems to be at a crossroads, and October’s direction will likely depend on whether these bearish indicators reverse or continue their current trend.
It’s worth remembering that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and this October might break from historical patterns given the current market conditions.
